Why a small probability of terror generates a large macroeconomic impact

The basic narrative of bargaining theory predicts that, all else equal, anarchy favors concessions to challengers who demonstrate the will and ability to escalate against defenders. For this reason, post-9/11 political science research explained terrorism as rational strategic behavior for non-state challengers to induce government compliance given their constraints. Over the past decade, however, empirical research has consistently found that neither escalating to terrorism nor with terrorism helps non-state actors to achieve their demands. In fact, escalating to terrorism or with terrorism increases the odds that target countries will dig in their political heels, depriving the non-state challengers of their given preferences. These empirical findings across disciplines, methodologies, as well as salient global events raise important research questions, with implications for counterterrorism strategy.     

一类具有时滞和Gompertz增长率的捕食系统的稳定性与Hopf分支

研究一类具有时滞和Gompertz增长率的捕食系统,通过分析系统的特征方程,得到正平衡点的局部稳定性和系统出现Hopf分支的条件,并利用中心流形定理和规范型理论,得到确定Hopf分支方向和分支周期解稳定性的计算公式．     

SWATH船纵向运动性能分析

根据切片理论编制了SWATH船在规则波及不规则波中的纵向运动理论预报程序.分析了航速对SWATH船在不规则波中迎浪纵向运动响应的影响规律.并研究了鳍的位置、尺度、组合形式对SWATH船纵向运动性能的影响.结果表明,中高速航行有利于发挥SWATH船优越的耐波性;增大鳍的尺度、使用艏艉组合鳍能提高SWATH船在不规则波中的纵向运动性能.     

高速/超高速碰撞效应研究

高速/超高速碰撞会产生大量破片,并伴随闪光、等离子体等现象.高速碰撞材料受冲击产生射流及破片高温会引起碰撞闪光现象,获得了碰撞等离子体电磁场强度的变化规律.采用数值仿真与理论分析相结合的方法,获得了高速碰撞破片云团分布规律.     

一类具免疫时滞的HIV模型的动力学性态分析

研究一类具有时滞和免疫反应的HIV模型。首先通过分析特征方程研究了平衡点的局部稳定性以及Hopf分支的存在性。然后利用规范型理论和中心流行理论得到了确定Hopf分支方向和分支周期解稳定性的计算公式。接着讨论了无病平衡点的全局稳定性。最后通过数值模拟说明了所得理论结果。     

基于网络分析法的弹药生产响应能力影响因素

针对未来战场对弹药需求动态、突发、受任务冲击影响等特点,提出弹药生产响应能力概念,建立了任务冲击条件下弹药生产响应能力影响因素的指标体系。运用网络分析法,建立典型结构的弹药生产响应能力影响因素的网络模型,得出弹药生产响应能力的关键影响因素,为弹药生产响应能力分析与提高提供了科学研究方法。     

磁流变阻尼器响应时间仿真与试验研究

响应时间是磁流变阻尼器（Magnetorheological Damper,MRD）重要性能指标之一。为分析MRD响应时间及影响因素,建立了MRD动态响应模型,提出了一种基于Ansoft和Adams联合仿真分析MRD响应时间的方法,并通过仿真与试验相结合的方法分析了阶跃电流幅值、活塞运动速度以及系统刚度等因素对MRD响应时间的影响。仿真结果和试验数据表明：MRD响应时间随活塞速度和系统刚度的增大呈减小趋势,随阶跃电流幅值的升高呈增大趋势。同时证明通过联合仿真分析MRD响应时间和影响因素的方法是有效的。     

薄壳结构跌落冲击仿真与试验研究

为了验证薄壳结构跌落冲击问题动态数值仿真的方法途径,设计制作了带有配重的薄壳结构,测定了材料主要力学性能,利用非线性有限元软件对该结构进行单次和累积结果的多次跌落冲击数值仿真,并进行了验证试验。对该结构的跌落冲击过程、典型位置的加速度响应、塑性变形的仿真、验证试验结果进行了对比分析,结果表明：采用的数值仿真方法和途径能够较好地研究分析薄壳结构的跌落冲击及其他同类问题。     

Force chains based mesoscale simulation on the dynamic response of Al-PTFE granular composites

Force chains based mesoscale simulation is conducted to investigate the response behavior of aluminum-polytetrafluoroethylene (Al-PTFE) granular composites under a low-velocity impact. A two-dimensional model followed the randomly normal distribution of real Al particles size is developed. The dynamic compressive process of Al-PTFE composites with varied Al mass fraction is simulated and validated against the experiments. The results indicate that, force chains behavior governed by the number and the size of agglomerated Al particles, significantly affects the impact response of the material. The failure mode of the material evolves from shear failure of matrix to debonding failure of particles with increasing density. A high crack area of the material is critical mechanism to arouse the initiation re-action. The damage maintained by force chains during large plastic strain builds up more local stresses concentration to enhance a possible reaction performance. In addition, simulation is performed with identical mass fraction but various Al size distribution to explore the effects of size centralization and dispersion on the mechanical properties of materials. It is found that smaller sized Al particle of com-posites are more preferred than its bulky material in ultimate strength. Increasing dispersed degree is facilitated to create stable force chains in samples with comparable particle number. The simulation studies provide further insights into the plastic deformation, failure mechanism, and possible energy release capacity for Al-PTFE composites, which is helpful for further design and application of reactive materials.     

Influences of different crossing types on dynamic response of underground cavern subjected to ground shock

An intersecting cavern is a common structural form used in underground engineering, and its safety and stability performance directly control the service performance of the whole project. The dynamic re-sponses of the three kinds of crossing type (+-shaped, T-shaped, L-shaped) caverns subjected to ground shock were studied by numerical simulation. The velocity plus force mode boundary setting method was proposed in the coupled static and dynamic analysis of a deep underground cavern. The results show that, among the three types of crossing caverns, the+-shaped cavern is the most significantly affected by the dynamic action, followed by T-shaped, and then L-shaped caverns. The vault settlement, straight wall deformation, vault peak particle velocity, effective plastic strain of surrounding rock, and maximum principal stress and strain at the bottom of the lining of the straight wall increase with the increase of cavern span. The vault settlement, straight wall deformation, effective plastic strain of surrounding rock, and the maximum principal stress and strain at the bottom of lining to the straight wall decrease with the increase of lateral pressure coefficient, and the peak particle velocity at the vault increases. The variation is small compared with the change of cavern span. The influence range of the underground cavern intersection is two cavern diameters from the intersection centre. The bottom of the straight wall at the intersection is the weak part. It is suggested to thicken the support locally to improve the stability of the cavern.